CASE STUDY: Future proof

SCENARIO PLANNING TO

FUTURE PROOF.

How Shell creates future scenarios to identify risks to the business and plan ahead. Resulting in an oil and gas company driving the sustainability agenda.

choosing the right strategy

40 years.

Time span.

Protect future growth.

Desired outcome.

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL.

Shell has forged itself into one the largest global oil and gas companies in the world, becoming a household name. However, the old way of doing business, and multiple eco disasters over the years have highlighted the need for greener energy.

The problem:

In a world that is beginning to expect greener energy, how does an oil and gas company remain relevant, and grow for shareholders?

THE SOLUTION; SCENARIO PLANNING.

Shell Oil continues to be the leader in scenario planning, with a specific eye toward the impact of oil on our society, economy, and environment.

By utilising experts in scenario planning, Shell managed to outline highly likely possible future states on which to base company strategy.

In these scenarios, written in 2011, they highlight the potential movement from energy sources such as coal and gas, to renewable energy over the following 40 years.

This may initially seem like a death sentence to a gas-focussed giant. However, by acting on these expected upcoming trends Shell has managed to become one of the forefront drivers of renewable energy.

The result is not only protecting the business from future macro threats, but also paving a way for future growth while remaining competitive.

OBSTACLES.

business strategic problems

When outlining a future scenario that initially seems to call for the death of your own company, there are many obstacles to face.

Firstly, what can you do to do to protect your business from these threats. The obstacle here is largely the ability to accept the possibilities, and find a way to pivot effectively.

Secondly, getting major stakeholders, shareholders, management, and staff, to accept this new strategy, and the reasons behind it. Utilising common bias such as the loss aversion bias (people are more concerned about loss than potential future gain) can be a good tactic to use.

Another way to influence this outcome is by highlighting a great message, in this case sustainability. Becoming more environmentally friendly is becoming a trend for a reason - instead of fighting it, do as Shell did, and support it.

data analytics for competitor analysis

FUTURE PROOF YOUR BUSINESS

Identifying current trends is only the start. By analysing the wider environment, we identify the key drivers and potential future scenarios to make sure you are always two steps ahead.

About the company.

Commonly known as Shell, is a British-Dutch multinational oil and gas company headquartered in the Netherlands, and incorporated in the United Kingdom.

Industry.

Energy.

Company size.

80k - 90k.

data analytics for competitor analysis

FUTURE PROOF YOUR BUSINESS

Identifying current trends is only the start. By analysing the wider environment, we identify the key drivers and potential future scenarios to make sure you are always two steps ahead.

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BUSINESS PLAN TEMPLATE

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